Abstract
A previous analysis of the Alpha-Tocopherol Beta-Carotene (ATBC) Study on male smokers found that β-carotene supplementation increased the risk of pneumonia 4-fold in those who started smoking at the age of ≥21 years and smoked ≥21 cigarettes/d (a subgroup of 7 % of the study population). The present study hypothesised that β-carotene increases mortality in the same subgroup. The ATBC Study (1985-1993) recruited 29 133 Finnish male smokers (≥5 cigarettes/d) aged 50-69 years. Cox regression models were constructed to estimate the effect of β-carotene supplementation in subgroups. β-Carotene increased mortality (risk ratio 1·56; 95 % CI 1·06, 2·3) in those who started to smoke at ≥21 years and smoked ≥21 cigarettes/d. Within this subgroup, there was strong evidence of further heterogeneity. The effect of β-carotene supplementation was further modified by dietary vitamin C intake, fruit and vegetable intake (P = 0·0004), and by vitamin E supplementation (P = 0·011). Thus, harm from β-carotene was not uniform within the study population. Interactions between β-carotene and vitamins C and E were seen only within a subgroup of 7 % of the ATBC participants, and therefore should not be extrapolated to the general population. Heterogeneity of the β-carotene effect on mortality challenges the validity of previous meta-analyses that have pooled many diverse antioxidants for one single estimate of effect using the assumption that a single estimate equally applies to all antioxidants and all people. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00342992.
